“We have never had sales and income tax revenues do what they are doing now.”  These words were spoken by Joyce Bigbee, Director of the Legislative Fiscal Office.  There was more than concern in her voice.  I was more than concerned when I heard her words.

            Income and sales taxes generally go for education in Alabama. From time to time we have experienced declines in the growth of these taxes.  There were even a few times there were no growth.    Now we are now seeing powerful negative growth, not just declines and failures to grow.  We are seeing a different fiscal animal, and that is scary.

            What is this negative growth?  What are these declines?  What does that mean for the present and future?  Declines are less growth than the previous year but growth nonetheless.  With rare exceptions, we have had at least some growth of income and sales taxes revenue every year. 

            Negative growth is not just lower rates of growth but less actual revenue than the previous year.  In short, not only less growth, but less revenue.  Negative growth is a different animal than we are used to seeing.

            “It’s scary,” says Joyce Bigbee.  “The declines in revenue are steeper and longer than anything we have ever seen.”   Bigbee also says, “It’s scary because we don’t know where the bottom is.  No one knows.”  The worst decline in sales tax revenues was 3.49 percent way back in 1954.  We are at 8.92 percent in 2009, nearly 2 ½ times as much.  Yes, this is truly a different animal.

            What is causing these never before seen revenue declines?  Well, unemployment is one thing.  It is nearly 10 percent for the state.  And people are still losing jobs, which drives down income tax revenues even more.

            In addition, people are not spending their monies, which hurts sales taxes.  Some are not spending because they don’t have it to spend.  Others have it but are still not spending.  Savings are at the highest level in 20 years.  Savings are usually good, but it’s bad when people save from fear.  And many people are not just fearful, they are scared.  We are facing a different fiscal animal, and we don’t know how to deal with it.

            What does this mean for the current fiscal year that ends September 30, 2009, for the next fiscal year that ends September 30, 2010 , and for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2011?  In short, it means real hard times in education for the foreseeable future.

            In the current year, we had rainy day funds, (monies that could be borrowed) to soften the impact of these hard times.  Even with rainy day funds, we still had to cut hundreds of million dollars from the Education Budget.

            Governor Bob Riley has been trying to hold on to half the Rainy Day Funds to provide protection during future rainy days.  However, I don’t see how he can refuse to release the remaining Rainy Day Funds.  Right now the Department of Revenue may be holding well over $100 million in income tax refunds that must be paid.  Just to keep proration at the 9 percent level requires these remaining Rainy Day Funds be released.  We are facing a different fiscal animal and it’s scary.

            Then we must also be concerned about the next fiscal year 2010.  We did that budget back in April and May.  We had hundreds of millions of stimulus dollars to cushion the blow.  Joyce Bigbee and others made very conservative revenue projections.  But this unanticipated negative revenue growth is wreaking havoc with the projections and the education budget. 

            In the 2010 fiscal year, there will be no Rainy Day Funds.  We have utilized the Stimulus Funds as wisely as possible.  Still we are very likely to have proration in the 2010 education budget with no monetary resources to blunt the fury of this unruly fiscal storm.  We are facing a different animal that is more powerful than any we have seen.

            Come January, we will be crafting an education budget for 2011.  There will be no stimulus monies, no rainy day funds, no other funds to shield us from the fiscal drought.  We have no idea how to handle this coming phase of the crisis.   It’s truly scary because we are facing a very different animal where dimensions are unknown. 

But all is not doom and gloom.  This crisis may not turn out as bad as it appears.  We certainly hope so.  But even if it is, we will make it through the storm.  Come what may, we will embrace this struggle and do our best.  And our best is always good enough.

            Now on to the Daily Diary.

            Saturday – I was still in Trinidad in the Caribbean.  I participated in a radio program with Selma Mayor George Evans, Rev. Winston Williams, Businessman Henry Moore and his daughter Camera, and the Trinidadian radio host.  We returned to the Trade and Investment Convention before traveling to the Port of Spain Airport for the trip back.  Mayor Evans and I arrived in Atlanta after 12 midnight and traveled on to Selma by automobile.  The others remained in Trinidad for additional days. 

            Sunday – I arrived at home about 4:30 a.m. but was up after two hours sleep.  I prepared and did Radio Sunday School with Dr. Margaret Hardy and Radio Education with Perry County School Superintendent John Heard.  I participated briefly in Sunday School and made it to Fort Deposit by 11 a.m. to serve as the Youth Day Speaker for the Macedonia Baptist Church.  I talked to various leaders including Rev. Will K. Simpson, Jackie Thomas of Montgomery, and Matilda Hartley of Fort Deposit.  I returned to Selma to discuss education over Sunday Dinner with Dr. Fannie McKenzie and her husband, Bobby.  I tried to work on an urgent matter but kept falling asleep from tiredness.  I finally gave up and slept.

            Monday – I was up at 3:30 a.m. working on urgent challenges.  At 7:30 a.m., I attended a Team Selma Breakfast meeting.  By 10:00 a.m., I was in Lowndes County for a meeting and back in Selma by noon.  I talked with the following:  Sally Howell of the Alabama Association of School Boards; Lowndes County School superintendent Dr. Daniel Boyd; Lowndes County School Board member Robert Grant; Ola Morrow of Maplesville; Sharon Calhoun of Montgomery; and Greene County School Superintendent, Isaac Atkins.  I shared dinner with Alesia Summerville of Alabama Power Company and her niece, Tiffany Harris, and worked until midnight.

            Tuesday – I made remarks and answered questions at a 7:30 a.m. meeting of One Selma.  I talked with the following:  Yvonne Hatcher of Selma; Donald Stewart of Anniston; Sharon Wheeler of Congressman Parker Griffith’s Staff; former Senator E. B. McClain; Eutaw Mayor Raymond Steele; LeBarron Boone of Montgomery; Selma Mayor George Evans; and Dr. Paul Hubbert of the Alabama Education Association (AEA).   I worked into the night.

            Wednesday – I talked with the following:  Consultant Paul Hamrick; Dr. Carol P. Zippert and Laddi Jones of the Greene County Democrat; John Zippert of the Federation of Southern Cooperatives (the Federation); Spiver Gordon of Greene County about his mother’s death; recently elected Senator Marc Keahey; newly elected Senator Priscilla Dunn; State School Superintendent Dr. Joseph Morton; Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb; Dr. Chudy Okoye of Selma; and Colonel Chris Murphy and Sergeant Johnny Tubbs of the Alabama State Troopers about the Foot Washing and Bikers Rally in West Alabama. I worked into the evening.

            Thursday - I talked with the following:  Joyce Bigbee and Kelly Butler of the Legislative Fiscal Office (LFO) about revenue projections; David Butts of the Lowndes County Engineers Office; Dr. Austin Obasohan, Superintendent of Selma City Schools; Mayor John Jackson of White Hall; Bea Forniss of ADECA; Marie Minter of Selma; and H. B. Williams of Monroeville.  I began writing Sketches, did an interview about Selma with Michael Hertzman who is making a documentary and participated on a conference call springing from Black Farmers legislation.

            Friday – This was a working holiday for me.  No one else except for me was at the office, where I started at 8:00 a.m. with a meeting with Representative Yusuf Salaam.  I worked on Sketches.  I traveled to West Blocton to visit Charles and Gullah Sanders and consumed too much brim fish.  I returned to Selma to have dinner with Alesia Summerville, her sister Kim Threat, and her niece Tiffany Harris.  I returned to work into the night.

            EPILOGUE - When we experience something that we have not encountered before, it’s scary because of the unknown.  We cannot really prepare for the unknown.  But that’s where faith and work comes to bear.  We just do our best, hope for the best and pray for the best.